· Analysis updated 01:26 UTC
Real Zaragoza II vs Atlético Monzón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Real Zaragoza II and 0.84 for Atlético Monzón, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Real Zaragoza II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Zaragoza II win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Zaragoza II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Monzón away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Zaragoza II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Real Zaragoza II and 0.84 for Atlético Monzón, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Real Zaragoza II
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-1 (W)
Atlético Monzón
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Almudévar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Ejea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Brea | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cuarte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Caspe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | La Almunia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Épila | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fraga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Binéfar | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Huesca II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Monzón | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Illueca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Andorra CF | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Almudévar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Robres | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Zaragoza II win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.