Real Zaragoza II vs Binéfar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Real Zaragoza II and 0.98 for Binéfar, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Real Zaragoza II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Real Zaragoza II win

72.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.64 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Zaragoza II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Zaragoza II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Real Zaragoza II and 0.98 for Binéfar, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Real Zaragoza II win73%

Draw16%

Binéfar win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–09.4%
2–19.1%
3–08.2%
3–18.0%
1–07.1%

Recent form

Real Zaragoza II

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-1 (W)

Binéfar

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza II	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Ejea	6	5	0	1	7	15
3	Brea	6	4	2	0	8	14
4	Fraga	6	3	2	1	4	11
5	Cuarte	6	3	1	2	5	10
6	Épila	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Atlético Monzón	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Caspe	6	2	3	1	3	9
9	Almudévar	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Binéfar	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Huesca II	6	1	4	1	-1	7
12	La Almunia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Illueca	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	CD Sietamo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Andorra CF	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	0	2	4	-11	2
18	Robres	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Zaragoza II win, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.