· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Recoleta vs O'Higgins Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Recoleta and 2.03 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives O'Higgins the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
O'Higgins win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recoleta home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
O'Higgins away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates O'Higgins to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Recoleta and 2.03 for O'Higgins, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Recoleta
- 2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 1-3 (L)
O'Higgins
- 2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Chile table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antofagasta | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Colo Colo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Concepción | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Coquimbo Unido | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | U. Catolica | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Universidad de Chile | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Nublense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Union La Calera | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Curico Unido | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Palestino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton de Vina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Deportes Limache | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Cobreloa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Union San Felipe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | D. La Serena | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | San Luis | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Huachipato | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Rangers de Talca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Deportes Temuco | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 | Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 26 | Universidad de Concepcion | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 27 | Union Espanola | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 28 | Deportes Copiapo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 29 | Santiago Wanderers | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 30 | Cobresal | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 31 | San Marcos de Arica | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 32 | Magallanes | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is O'Higgins win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.