Recoleta vs Rangers de Talca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Recoleta and 0.80 for Rangers de Talca, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Recoleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Recoleta home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rangers de Talca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Recoleta win40%

Draw32%

Rangers de Talca win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–016.5%
0–016.1%
1–113.2%
0–112.9%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Recoleta

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 2-1 (W)

Rangers de Talca

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 4-2 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2026-03-21T21:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 4-2 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2025-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · Recoleta 2-3 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2025-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 1-1 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2024-11-30T23:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 0-0 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2024-11-26T21:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 0-1 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Recoleta 2-2 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2024-06-03T23:30:00.000Z · Recoleta 2-1 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2023-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · Recoleta 1-2 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)
2023-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · Recoleta 2-1 Rangers de Talca (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Luis	28	15	8	5	14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	14	9	5	21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	13	8	7	15	47
4	Magallanes	28	13	7	8	4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	28	11	8	9	-2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	8	11	9	6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	10	5	13	-9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	4	11	13	-14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	5	8	15	-32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	5	6	17	-18	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.