Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Recoleta and 1.15 for San Marcos de Arica, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Recoleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Recoleta win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Recoleta home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Marcos de Arica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Recoleta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Recoleta and 1.15 for San Marcos de Arica, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Recoleta win45%

Draw26%

San Marcos de Arica win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.6%
2–19.1%
0–18.1%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Recoleta

2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs San Luis · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)

San Marcos de Arica

2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	22	54
2	San Luis	29	15	9	5	14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	16	50
4	Antofagasta	29	13	9	7	25	48
5	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	1	46
6	San Marcos de Arica	29	11	10	8	7	43
7	Recoleta	29	11	9	9	-2	42
8	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	1	41
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	-3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	-7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	29	9	9	11	4	36
13	Curico Unido	29	7	10	12	-20	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	-14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	-34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Recoleta win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.