Recoleta vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Recoleta and 1.64 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Santiago Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Recoleta home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santiago Wanderers away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santiago Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Recoleta and 1.64 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Recoleta win32%

Draw24%

Santiago Wanderers win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–29.1%
0–18.1%
2–17.6%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Recoleta

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 2-1 (W)

Santiago Wanderers

2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Luis	28	15	8	5	14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	14	9	5	21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	13	8	7	15	47
4	Magallanes	28	13	7	8	4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	28	11	8	9	-2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	8	11	9	6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	10	5	13	-9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	4	11	13	-14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	5	8	15	-32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	5	6	17	-18	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.