· Analysis updated 17:18 UTC
Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Înainte Modelu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 2.19 for Înainte Modelu, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Înainte Modelu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Înainte Modelu win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recolta Gheorghe Doja home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Înainte Modelu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Înainte Modelu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 20% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 2.19 for Înainte Modelu, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 1-4 (L)
Înainte Modelu
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tricolorul Breaza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Înainte Modelu win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.