· Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Portul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.61 expected goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 1.72 for Portul Constanta, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives Recolta Gheorghe Doja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Recolta Gheorghe Doja win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
3.61 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recolta Gheorghe Doja home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Recolta Gheorghe Doja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 13% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.61 goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 1.72 for Portul Constanta, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 79%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.5%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–15.4%
- 4–25.1%
Recent form
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 1-4 (L)
Portul Constanta
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Recolta Gheorghe Doja win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.