· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Progresul Fundulea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 2.20 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Progresul Fundulea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recolta Gheorghe Doja home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progresul Fundulea away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progresul Fundulea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 36% / 20% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja and 2.20 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 1-4 (L)
Progresul Fundulea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Băneasa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.