· Analysis updated 06:21 UTC
Recreativo da Caála vs 1º de Agosto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Recreativo da Caála and 1.37 for 1º de Agosto, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives 1º de Agosto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.1% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1º de Agosto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Agosto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Recreativo da Caála and 1.37 for 1º de Agosto, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
Recreativo da Caála
1º de Agosto
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virunga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Mamba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting de Cabinda · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Interclube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Recreativo do Libolo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | 1º de Maio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Sagrada Esperança | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | CD Lunda-Sul | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | São Salvador | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.