· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Recreativo da Caála vs Bravos do Maquis FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Recreativo da Caála and 1.16 for Bravos do Maquis FC, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Bravos do Maquis FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bravos do Maquis FC win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bravos do Maquis FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bravos do Maquis FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 24% / 31% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Recreativo da Caála and 1.16 for Bravos do Maquis FC, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Recreativo da Caála
Bravos do Maquis FC
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Maio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo da Caála · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabuscorp · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs São Salvador · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bravos do Maquis FC win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.