· Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Recreativo do Libolo vs 1º de Maio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Recreativo do Libolo and 1.41 for 1º de Maio, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Recreativo do Libolo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recreativo do Libolo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1º de Maio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Recreativo do Libolo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Recreativo do Libolo and 1.41 for 1º de Maio, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Recreativo do Libolo
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Maio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Petro de Luanda · 0-3 (L)
1º de Maio
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Interclube | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.