Nuevo Colombino · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Recreativo Huelva vs Puente Genil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Recreativo Huelva and 0.99 for Puente Genil, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Recreativo Huelva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Recreativo Huelva win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recreativo Huelva home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puente Genil away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Recreativo Huelva
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamaraceite · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Betis C · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Puente Genil · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 0-3 (L)
Puente Genil
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Lucena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbella · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Estepona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Recreativo Huelva 2-1 Puente Genil (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2026-03-14T16:30:00.000Z · Recreativo Huelva 0-0 Puente Genil (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · Recreativo Huelva 1-2 Puente Genil (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2022-03-06T16:00:00.000Z · Recreativo Huelva 1-3 Puente Genil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2021-11-07T16:00:00.000Z · Recreativo Huelva 2-0 Puente Genil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tenerife II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Estepona | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Don Benito | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Sevilla Atletico | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Puente Genil | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Marbella | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Las Palmas II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Tamaraceite | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Recreativo Huelva win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.