· Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Recreativo Huelva vs San Roque Lepe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Recreativo Huelva and 1.55 for San Roque Lepe, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives San Roque Lepe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Roque Lepe win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Recreativo Huelva home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Roque Lepe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Roque Lepe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 1.55 for San Roque Lepe, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Recreativo Huelva
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanluqueño · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cádiz II · 1-0 (W)
San Roque Lepe
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Roque Lepe win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.