Red Arrows vs Nkwazi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Red Arrows and 0.68 for Nkwazi, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Red Arrows the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Red Arrows win

49.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.24 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Red Arrows home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nkwazi away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Arrows to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 30% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Red Arrows and 0.68 for Nkwazi, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Red Arrows win50%

Draw30%

Nkwazi win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–018.2%
0–014.7%
1–112.4%
2–011.2%
0–110.0%

Recent form

Red Arrows

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaizer Chiefs · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mufulira Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mutondo Stars · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Inate Rouge · 2-0 (W)

Nkwazi

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Eagles · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Buffaloes · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chirundu Utd · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roan United · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Prison Leopards · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zanaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Red Arrows win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.