Red Bull Arena · Referee Walter Altmann, Austria · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.58 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Red Bull Salzburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 2–014.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 1-1 (D)
Austria Vienna
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Traiskirchen · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-22T16:30:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-19T12:30:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-06T19:30:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-22T16:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-12T16:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.