· Analysis updated 05:20 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs FC BW Linz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.58 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.58 for FC BW Linz, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
FC BW Linz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.