Red Bull Arena · Referee Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland · Analysis updated 18:06 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.03 for Pafos, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pafos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.03 for Pafos, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
Pafos
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 3-3 Pafos (UEFA Europa League)
- 2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Pafos (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.