Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.63 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.63 for Rapid Vienna, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Red Bull Salzburg win37%

Draw23%

Rapid Vienna win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Red Bull Salzburg

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)

Rapid Vienna

2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	10	9	0	1	22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	6	3	0	17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	6	1	2	14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	5	2	2	6	17
5	Ried	9	4	2	3	1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	3	3	4	-2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	2	4	4	-15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	3	0	7	-6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	2	2	6	-12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	2	1	7	-10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	1	2	7	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.