Red Bull Arena · Referee Alain Sadikovski, Austria · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.90 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Red Bull Salzburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Hartberg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.90 for TSV Hartberg, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 1-1 (D)
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.