RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.62 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Saint Etienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Saint Etienne win

49.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

RED Star FC 93 home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Saint Etienne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saint Etienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.62 for Saint Etienne, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

RED Star FC 93 win26%

Draw25%

Saint Etienne win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–110.7%
1–29.5%
0–28.7%
1–07.2%

Recent form

RED Star FC 93

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Metz · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boulogne · 1-1 (D)

Saint Etienne

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Saint Etienne	10	8	1	1	15	25
2	Nancy	10	6	1	3	4	19
3	Montpellier	9	5	3	1	6	18
4	Reims	9	4	5	0	8	17
5	PAU	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	5	2	2	2	17
7	Annecy	10	5	1	4	2	16
8	Metz	10	3	5	2	2	14
9	Dijon	10	3	3	4	-1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Guingamp	10	3	2	5	-2	11
12	Sochaux	10	2	5	3	-4	11
13	Rodez	10	3	1	6	-6	10
14	Boulogne	9	1	6	2	0	9
15	Nantes	10	2	2	6	-6	8
16	Grenoble	10	2	2	6	-8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	0	7	3	-5	7
18	Laval	10	1	3	6	-8	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Saint Etienne win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.