Red Star Penzing vs Wienerberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Red Star Penzing and 1.95 for Wienerberg, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Wienerberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wienerberg win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Red Star Penzing home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wienerberg away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wienerberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 22% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Red Star Penzing and 1.95 for Wienerberg, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Red Star Penzing win20%

Draw22%

Wienerberg win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.9%
0–19.9%
0–29.7%
1–36.5%

Recent form

Red Star Penzing

2026-07-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Langenrohr · 4-2 (W)
2026-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna II · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria XIII · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts Brigittenau · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan HAC · 3-0 (W)

Wienerberg

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloggnitz · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fach-Donaufeld · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scheiblingkirchen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiener Viktoria · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiener SC · 0-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Wien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wienerberg	28	22	4	2	54	70
2	Dinamo Helfort	27	18	5	4	30	59
3	LAC-Inter	28	16	5	7	21	53
4	1980 Wien	28	12	9	7	7	45
5	Red Star Penzing	26	12	7	7	10	43
6	First Vienna II	25	12	6	7	24	42
7	Austria XIII	26	10	8	8	3	38
8	Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	25	9	6	10	-7	33
9	Vorwärts Brigittenau	27	9	3	15	-34	30
10	Schwechat	27	9	2	16	-4	29
11	Hellas Kagran	28	7	8	13	-19	29
12	Slovan HAC	26	8	3	15	-10	27
13	FAC Wien	25	7	5	13	-7	26
14	Simmeringer SC	27	5	6	16	-33	21
15	Stadlau	26	4	7	15	-19	19
16	Mauerwerk	11	2	2	7	-16	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wienerberg win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.