· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Reddis vs Atlètic Lleida Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reddis and 1.18 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Reddis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Reddis home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlètic Lleida away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Reddis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Reddis and 1.18 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Reddis
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manresa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ebro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna II · 0-1 (L)
Atlètic Lleida
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mollerussa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.