· Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Redditch United vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Redditch United and 1.90 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Redditch United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Redditch United win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Redditch United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berkhamsted away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Redditch United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Redditch United and 1.90 for Berkhamsted, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Redditch United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)
Berkhamsted
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hendon · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Redditch United win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.