· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Redditch United vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Redditch United and 1.14 for Evesham United, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Redditch United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Redditch United win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Redditch United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Evesham United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–16.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 48.1% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 24.9% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.08 | 45.4% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 23.9% | 23.9% | 4.18 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.6% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.2% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.6% | 76.1% | 1.31 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.3% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Redditch United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)
Evesham United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 3-0 Evesham United (FA Cup)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 2-1 Evesham United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-23T18:30:00.000Z · Redditch United 2-1 Evesham United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-26T18:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 1-1 Evesham United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2015-10-31T15:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 0-1 Evesham United (FA Trophy)
- 2014-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 0-1 Evesham United (FA Cup)
- 2014-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 0-0 Evesham United (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Redditch United win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.