Redditch United vs Needham Market Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Redditch United and 1.79 for Needham Market, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Needham Market the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Redditch United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Needham Market away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Needham Market to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Redditch United and 1.79 for Needham Market, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Redditch United win37%

Draw22%

Needham Market win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.3%
1–28.3%
2–17.9%
2–27.0%
0–15.5%

Recent form

Redditch United

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)

Needham Market

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rushall Olympic · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stamford · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Braintree · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	12	10	2	0	23	32
2	Bury Town	13	10	1	2	8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	-8	11
17	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	3	1	8	-8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	2	4	7	-8	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.