Compass Grounds · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Redlands United vs Logan Lightning Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Redlands United and 1.75 for Logan Lightning, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Redlands United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Logan Lightning away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Redlands United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Redlands United and 1.75 for Logan Lightning, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Recent form
Redlands United
Logan Lightning
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · A vs Redlands United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · H vs St George Willawong · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Broadbeach United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Wanderers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.