· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Referencia U20 and 1.44 for Palmeiras U20, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras U20 win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 27% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Referencia U20 and 1.44 for Palmeiras U20, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 50% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–210.0%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Referencia U20
Palmeiras U20
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ituano U20 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras U20 win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.