MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore · Referee M. Guida · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Reggiana vs Sampdoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.99 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Reggiana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Reggiana win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Reggiana home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sampdoria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Reggiana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Reggiana and 0.99 for Sampdoria, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Reggiana
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Spezia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Latina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
Sampdoria
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Mantova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Palermo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cesena · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Pisa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Modena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Sudtirol | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Benevento | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Arezzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Cesena | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Empoli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Vicenza Virtus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Reggiana win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.