Reims II vs Metz II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Reims II and 1.51 for Metz II, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Metz II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Reims II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Metz II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Reims II win31%

Draw25%

Metz II win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–08.0%
0–27.5%

Recent form

Reims II

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Metz II · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique St Quentin · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amiens SC II · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs OCPAM · 0-2 (L)

Metz II

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympique St Quentin · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims II · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amiens SC II · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OCPAM · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Balagne · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Reims II 2-1 Metz II (National 3 - Group E)
2026-01-17T14:00:00.000Z · Reims II 3-2 Metz II (National 3 - Group E)
2024-02-03T17:00:00.000Z · Reims II 1-3 Metz II (National 3 - Group I)
2023-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Reims II 1-1 Metz II (National 3 - Group I)
2023-03-04T17:00:00.000Z · Reims II 1-1 Metz II (National 2 - Group B)
2022-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · Reims II 1-3 Metz II (National 2 - Group B)
2022-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · Reims II 0-0 Metz II (National 2 - Group B)
2021-11-20T16:00:00.000Z · Reims II 1-3 Metz II (National 2 - Group B)

National 3 - Group E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lille II	26	15	3	8	22	48
2	Croix Football IC	26	14	4	8	17	46
3	Le Pays du Valois	26	13	7	6	16	45
4	OCPAM	26	12	5	9	1	40
5	Vimy	26	11	6	9	5	39
6	Olympique St Quentin	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Drancy	26	10	5	11	6	35
8	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	9	7	10	-4	34
9	Metz II	26	10	3	13	-5	33
10	Balagne	26	9	6	11	-1	33
11	Neuilly sur Marne	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Pays de Cassel	26	7	8	11	-15	29
13	Amiens SC II	26	8	5	13	-13	29
14	Reims II	26	5	9	12	-19	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.