· Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Reims vs Francs Borains Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Reims and 2.93 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Francs Borains the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Francs Borains win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 2.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Reims home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Francs Borains away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Francs Borains to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 21% / 17% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Reims and 2.93 for Francs Borains, a combined 4.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.1%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–45.0%
Recent form
Reims
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Guingamp · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 3-1 (W)
Francs Borains
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs K. Lierse S.K. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Diegem Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RSC Anderlecht II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokeren-Temse · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-15T14:00:00.000Z · Reims 4-1 Francs Borains (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Francs Borains win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.