Reinickendorfer Fuchse vs Sparta Lichtenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Reinickendorfer Fuchse and 0.97 for Sparta Lichtenberg, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Reinickendorfer Fuchse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Reinickendorfer Fuchse win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Reinickendorfer Fuchse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Reinickendorfer Fuchse and 0.97 for Sparta Lichtenberg, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 57% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Reinickendorfer Fuchse win57%

Draw23%

Sparta Lichtenberg win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.2%
1–110.9%
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
0–06.2%

Recent form

Reinickendorfer Fuchse

Sparta Lichtenberg

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK '07 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Krieschow · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariendorf · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	BAK '07	9	4	4	1	3	16
4	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	FC Lok Stendal	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Union Klosterfelde	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	9	2	1	6	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Reinickendorfer Fuchse win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.