Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Rekord Bielsko-Biała and 1.23 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rekord Bielsko-Biała the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rekord Bielsko-Biała win

48.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chojniczanka Chojnice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rekord Bielsko-Biała to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Rekord Bielsko-Biała and 1.23 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rekord Bielsko-Biała win49%

Draw24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.5%
1–09.1%
2–07.7%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)

Chojniczanka Chojnice

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rekord Bielsko-Biała win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.