Gateway Stadium · Analysis updated 01:56 UTC
Remo Stars vs Nasarawa United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Remo Stars and 0.88 for Nasarawa United, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Remo Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Remo Stars home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Remo Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Remo Stars and 0.88 for Nasarawa United, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Remo Stars
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bendel Insurance · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayelsa United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Enyimba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Niger Tornadoes · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Barau FC · 1-2 (L)
Nasarawa United
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 2-1 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2025-11-06T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 1-2 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2025-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 0-1 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2024-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 3-0 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2023-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 1-0 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2023-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 0-2 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2022-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 1-1 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2021-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 0-0 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2017-06-11T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 1-0 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
- 2017-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Remo Stars 1-3 Nasarawa United (NPFL)
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nasarawa United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Plateau United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Barau FC | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kano Pillars | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Niger Tornadoes | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Doma United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Ikorodu City | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 17 | Abia Warriors | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.