Estadio Evandro Almeida · Referee A. Daronco · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Remo vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Remo and 1.49 for Santos, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Santos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Remo home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santos away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Remo and 1.49 for Santos, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Remo
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
Santos
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · Remo 1-2 Santos (Serie A)
- 2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · Remo 0-1 Santos (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · Remo 0-0 Santos (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-02T22:00:00.000Z · Remo 0-2 Santos (Serie A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.