Mino Favini · Referee L. Leorsini · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Renate vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Renate and 0.80 for Dolomiti Bellunesi, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Renate the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Renate home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dolomiti Bellunesi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Renate to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Renate and 0.80 for Dolomiti Bellunesi, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 63.3% vs market 52.2%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 63.3% | 1.58 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 56.6% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 25.8% | 26.4% | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.7% | 1.46 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.4% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 42.8% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.6% | 1.36 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 36.7% | 2.72 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Renate
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 1-4 (L)
Dolomiti Bellunesi
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.