· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Renfrew vs Stirling Albion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Renfrew and 2.01 for Stirling Albion, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Renfrew the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Renfrew home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Albion away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Renfrew to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Renfrew and 2.01 for Stirling Albion, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–25.0%
Recent form
Renfrew
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clydebank · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Caledonian Braves · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Troon FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic II · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cumbernauld Colts · 2-2 (D)
Stirling Albion
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cumbernauld Colts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.