Roazhon Park · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Rennes vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rennes and 1.23 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Rennes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rennes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Rennes
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 0-4 (L)
Lorient
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T16:00:00.000Z · Rennes 0-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2025-08-24T13:00:00.000Z · Rennes 0-4 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-03T16:05:00.000Z · Rennes 1-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2023-01-27T20:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-07T15:05:00.000Z · Rennes 0-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-24T11:00:00.000Z · Rennes 5-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2021-12-18T20:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-0 Lorient (Coupe de France)
- 2021-11-28T14:00:00.000Z · Rennes 2-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- 2021-02-03T18:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.