Ishin Me-Life Stadium · Analysis updated 11:41 UTC
Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagamihara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.09 for Sagamihara, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Renofa Yamaguchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Renofa Yamaguchi win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Renofa Yamaguchi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sagamihara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Renofa Yamaguchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.09 for Sagamihara, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 51.5% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 51.3% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 46.8% | 46.9% | 2.13 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.2% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.7% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.2% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Renofa Yamaguchi
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagamihara · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 3-0 (W)
Sagamihara
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitakyushu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Renofa Yamaguchi win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.