Complejo Rentistas · Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Rentistas vs Tacuarembo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Rentistas and 0.72 for Tacuarembo, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Rentistas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rentistas win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rentistas home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tacuarembo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rentistas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Rentistas and 0.72 for Tacuarembo, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–012.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–18.6%
Recent form
Rentistas
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Paysandu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Huracan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Uruguay Montevideo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriental · 0-2 (L)
Tacuarembo
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerrito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Paysandu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Huracan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uruguay Montevideo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Atenas | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 41 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Colón | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 36 |
| 5 | CA River Plate | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Oriental | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Paysandu | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
| 9 | La Luz | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Fenix | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Miramar | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 12 | Sportivo Huracan | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Tacuarembo | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -9 | 25 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -13 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rentistas win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.