Aviva Stadium · Referee I. A. Griffith · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Rep. Of Ireland vs FYR Macedonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Rep. Of Ireland and 0.68 for FYR Macedonia, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Rep. Of Ireland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rep. Of Ireland win
72.7% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rep. Of Ireland home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FYR Macedonia away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rep. Of Ireland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Rep. Of Ireland and 0.68 for FYR Macedonia, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.5%
- 1–012.1%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Rep. Of Ireland
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Israel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenada · 5-0 (W)
FYR Macedonia
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Slovenia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rep. Of Ireland win, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.