Aviva Stadium · Referee Jamie Robinson, Northern Ireland · Analysis updated 08:41 UTC
Rep. Of Ireland vs Qatar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rep. Of Ireland and 0.84 for Qatar, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Rep. Of Ireland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rep. Of Ireland win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rep. Of Ireland home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qatar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rep. Of Ireland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Rep. Of Ireland and 0.84 for Qatar, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Rep. Of Ireland
- 2026-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Israel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Austria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Israel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 1-1 (D)
Qatar
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs United Arab Emirates · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rep. Of Ireland win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.