Resende FC U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Resende FC U20 and 2.10 for Vasco da Gama U20, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Vasco da Gama U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vasco da Gama U20 win

59.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Resende FC U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco da Gama U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasco da Gama U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Resende FC U20 and 2.10 for Vasco da Gama U20, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Resende FC U20 win20%

Draw21%

Vasco da Gama U20 win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–29.9%
1–19.4%
0–28.8%
0–18.3%
1–36.9%

Recent form

Resende FC U20

2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa RJ U20 · 0-3 (L)
2026-03-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 3-3 (D)
2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olaria U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-03-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bangu U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista U20 · 1-0 (W)

Vasco da Gama U20

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Resende FC U20 1-1 Vasco da Gama U20 (Copa Rio U20)
2025-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Resende FC U20 2-4 Vasco da Gama U20 (Copa Rio U20)

Copa Rio U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama U20	11	9	0	2	16	27
2	América RJ U20	11	8	0	3	7	24
3	Fluminense U20	9	5	2	2	13	17
4	Botafogo U20	7	4	3	0	16	15
5	Bangu U20	9	5	0	4	2	15
6	Flamengo U20	7	4	0	3	11	12
7	Portuguesa RJ U20	7	3	1	3	2	10
8	Sampaio Corrêa U20	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Madureira U20	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Boavista U20	7	3	0	4	-4	9
11	Resende FC U20	7	2	2	3	-9	8
12	Nova Iguaçu U20	7	2	1	4	-6	7
13	Cabofriense U20	7	2	1	4	-11	7
14	Olaria U20	7	1	1	5	-10	4
15	Maricá U20	7	1	0	6	-6	3
16	Volta Redonda U20	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vasco da Gama U20 win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.