Estadio do Trabalhador · Analysis updated 21:21 UTC
Resende vs SE Belford Roxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.42 expected goals for Resende and 1.04 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined total of 5.46. That distribution gives Resende the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Resende win
89.7% probability
Expected goals
4.42 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Resende home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SE Belford Roxo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Resende to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 6% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.42 goals for Resende and 1.04 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined 5.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–17.0%
- 4–06.8%
- 3–16.4%
- 5–16.2%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Resende
- 2026-08-01T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Americano Campos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Americano Campos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-1 (L)
SE Belford Roxo
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Paraty · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Resende · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Resende · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Rio table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boavista SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nova Iguaçu | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Olaria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Madureira | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Pérolas Negras | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | América RJ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | CFRJ / Maricá | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Resende | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Bonsucesso | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Americano Campos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Portuguesa RJ | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | São Cristóvão RJ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | CEAC / Araruama | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serrano RJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Macaé | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Volta Redonda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Bangu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Cabofriense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Duque de Caxias | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 22 | Goytacaz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 23 | SE Belford Roxo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 24 | Santa Cruz RJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Resende win, at 89.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.