· Analysis updated 20:55 UTC
Résidence Walferdange vs AS Jeunesse Esch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.38 expected goals for Résidence Walferdange and 1.08 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Résidence Walferdange the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Résidence Walferdange win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
3.38 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Résidence Walferdange home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Jeunesse Esch away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Résidence Walferdange to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 11% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.38 goals for Résidence Walferdange and 1.08 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.5%
- 2–17.2%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Résidence Walferdange
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grevenmacher · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
AS Jeunesse Esch
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastendorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Résidence Walferdange win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.