Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie · Analysis updated 08:24 UTC
Resovia Rzeszów vs Lechia Zielona Góra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Resovia Rzeszów and 2.38 for Lechia Zielona Góra, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Lechia Zielona Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lechia Zielona Góra win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Resovia Rzeszów home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lechia Zielona Góra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Zielona Góra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Resovia Rzeszów and 2.38 for Lechia Zielona Góra, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Resovia Rzeszów
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kleczew · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Avia Świdnik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-2 (L)
Lechia Zielona Góra
- 2026-10-24T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lechia Zielona Góra win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.