· Analysis updated 03:03 UTC
Revilla vs Naval Reinosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.27 expected goals for Revilla and 1.20 for Naval Reinosa, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Revilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Revilla win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
3.27 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Revilla home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naval Reinosa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Revilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.27 goals for Revilla and 1.20 for Naval Reinosa, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 3–06.7%
- 4–16.5%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Revilla
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 0-2 (L)
Naval Reinosa
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Revilla · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Solares · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Revilla | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Sámano | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Torina | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Selaya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Solares | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Revilla win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.