Estadio Municipal · Referee Israel León · Analysis updated 05:58 UTC
Revilla vs Siete Villas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Revilla and 0.99 for Siete Villas, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Revilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Revilla win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Revilla home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siete Villas away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Revilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Revilla and 0.99 for Siete Villas, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Revilla
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-0 (W)
Siete Villas
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tropezón · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barreda · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sámano · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-13T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Revilla win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.