· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Revilla vs Vimenor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Revilla and 1.25 for Vimenor, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Revilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Revilla win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Revilla home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vimenor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Revilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Revilla and 1.25 for Vimenor, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Revilla
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-0 (W)
Vimenor
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sámano · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Revilla win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.