Vodafone Ratu Cakobau Park · Analysis updated 13:57 UTC
Rewa vs Lautoka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Rewa and 1.50 for Lautoka, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Rewa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rewa win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rewa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lautoka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rewa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Rewa and 1.50 for Lautoka, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Lautoka
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Suva · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-09-14T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Nadi · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Ba · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-24T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Navua · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-07-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tavua · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rewa win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.